Editor's Note: During the Spring Festival international commodity prices, caused great concern to investors. Especially international oil prices, has risen nearly half a year strong, but did not see signs of fatigue. Chinese New Year holiday in 7 days, one of the international benchmark Brent crude oil prices crude oil prices just short callback, then back on the 100 dollars a barrel mark. Domestic oil prices will therefore encounter unexpected increase in the near future? This situation is already severe in turn impact inflation? Will this year's international oil prices rose as strong as last year? This is how it affects the capital market will bring? Post reporters and scholars invited the industry to answer these questions.
weighted average price of international crude oil three first Friday, the rate of change has exceeded 10% of the experts said the delay in the domestic refined oil price increase is to control inflation, contributing to
Ding Shaoheng: PetroChina Company Limited Planning & Engineering Institute senior engineer. China Petroleum Planning Institute is directly under the China Petroleum and decision-support agencies.
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Lin Boqiang: currently the most well-known energy economists, particularly in the energy policy and energy reform quite accomplished. His May 1993 to June 2006 served as director of the Asian Development Bank energy economist; June 2006, Xiamen University, has served as Director of Research Center of China's energy economy; is the .
Zhang Jingming: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Secretary of the Board. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited is a subsidiary of Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, located in Jinshan District of Shanghai, is China's largest integrated oil refining and chemical integration of chemical companies.
storage section wang: Wang Interest Energy Information Officer, has more than ten years of oil industry business experience, has been involved in a range of government, business consulting projects. Interest wang energy is China's first independent oil market quotes and analysis of the professional bodies, is widely recognized as China's domestic and foreign users of oil and gas market the best source of information.
rising international oil prices have been strong the last six months, but did not see signs of fatigue. 7 days to Chinese New Year holiday period, the international crude oil price benchmark Brent crude oil price is only one experienced a short-term pullback, then back on the 100 dollars a barrel mark.
this point, the energy calculated according to Wang interest to December 21 as the base period of three rate of change of weighted average price of crude oil in the first trading day after the Spring Festival is also 7.77% from the pre-holiday rise in one fell swoop to 9.49% (in the following February 12 is over 10%). It has long been given to the State Development and Reform Commission raised the oil price conditions.
domestic oil prices will encounter unexpected increase in the near future? This situation is already severe in turn impact inflation? Will this year's international oil prices rose as strong as last year? This is how it affects the capital market will bring? Post reporters and scholars invited the industry to answer these questions.
guests included: director of energy information bearing reservoir section wang wang, Xiamen University, China Center for Economic Research Lin Boqiang Energy, PetroChina Planning & Engineering Institute senior Dingshao Heng, Secretary of the Board Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Zhang Jingming.
higher international oil prices, refined oil price shocks material dilemma
Guest view: the state has adopted a series of recent anti-inflation measures, such as raising interest rates, if at this time and control the introduction and then immediately measures of inflation in the opposite direction, such as increased oil prices, does little difficult.
Oriental Morning Post: With the soaring international oil prices, upward pressure on domestic oil prices increased significantly after the Spring Festival. When you think the NDRC may increase oil prices?
storage section Wong: If the near future to transfer, it is estimated that by the end of February before the transfer; If you do not adjust, we should wait until the Is now difficult to predict when it will be the national price adjustment, because the domestic inflation pressure. Recently the state has adopted a series of anti-inflation measures, such as raising interest rates, if at this time and then immediately put measures to control inflation in the opposite direction, such as increased oil prices, does little difficult. So I guess the short term stability of a country will choose stability.
Overall, the two major oil company profits last year, pretty good, so the state may indeed choose to take a while before the two oil pressure, such as the refining sector may be asked to sacrifice a little profit, as contribute to inflation.
In fact, the recent trend in international oil prices is also more complex, gradually easing the situation in Egypt, the Brent is still rising, while the WTI crude oil prices (Editors note: mainly reflects the needs of the Americas) has continued to decline. Now (February 12) the difference Brent and WTI has reached nearly 16 dollars 15 dollars, which is quite rare before.
Oriental Morning Post: How do you determine the trend of international oil prices this year? If oil prices continue to rise, the domestic inflation situation and what impact?
storage section Wong: This year, higher international oil prices will shock the interval may be 80 U.S. dollars / barrel to 110 dollars / barrel between, I estimate the average price of 85 dollars / barrel to 95 dollars / barrel between . The process will not be unilateral higher up, I estimate the first quarter, will be ascribed to the second quarter and then dropped.
higher international oil prices, a greater impact on Chinese inflation, will rise further refined oil, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas prices also will rise.
Lin Boqiang: trend from the point of view, should oil prices will go up. The average price of international oil prices in 2010 at 80 a barrel, I expect at a higher level this year, to more than 90 U.S. dollars a barrel. Without excluding a certain point, the highest oil price exceeds 100 U.S. dollars, or 110 U.S. dollars a barrel, this is possible.
international crude oil prices is not the direct impact on China because China's energy structure is very special, coal accounted for 70% or more, the proportion of oil and gas in primary energy consumption, but also 20%. Its real impact is indirect effects, will lead to coal, grain and other commodity prices, which from the upper reaches of the consumer price index (CPI, on behalf of the severity of inflation) have significant conduction effects.
Dingshao Heng: I have judged that the range of 80 dollars / barrel -110 U.S. dollars / barrel. But even break $ 100, but also short-term. Mean should be 90 U.S. dollars / barrel. Most of the year at 80 U.S. dollars / barrel -100 U.S. dollar / barrel run between.
Oriental Morning Post: Do you think this year, the decisive factors affecting the international oil price is what?
Lin Boqiang: long-term trend of rising oil prices are determined by the basic needs. Now the international energy demand pattern of weak or even declining in developed countries, but the decline was very small. China and emerging economies like India is an important support to the international crude oil price strength. Strong demand, and the increment is not small, so the future trend of international crude oil prices mainly depends on economic growth in China and India.
to short-term fluctuations, the main is the dollar depreciated. Dollar, oil prices down, the dollar fell, oil prices, every day, such an effect, after all, the international crude oil priced in U.S. dollars. But compared with the supply and demand fundamentals, the dollar is not the most important factors.
Wang storage section: depending on the degree of economic recovery in Europe, the European economy in 2011 should still not optimistic, if the recovery better, it will play a driving role. Conversely if the sovereign debt crisis broke out again, then would lower oil prices.
In addition, this year's oil price also depends on the status of U.S. dollars, and if it does not change the policy of quantitative easing, the dollar continued to depreciate, then the prices will rise.
last one, but also can not be ignored, that is, unexpected events, such as the Korean Peninsula, Iran and other areas of war, then the effect of pushing up oil prices would be the most significant of all factors, but now appears unlikely.
Ding Shaoheng: recent oil price rise faster, there are special reasons. For example, many unexpected events. From this year the full year, the basic factors affecting the international oil supply and demand fundamentals and the dollar is mainly two factors.
from a cost point of view, major oil investment projects must meet is not a loss, in the present situation, the need to maintain at 60 U.S. dollars / barrel -80 U.S. dollar / barrel between. OPEC oil prices or major developing countries have hope of not less than production cost. This greatly eliminates the possibility of significant downturn, it has to ensure that the bottom line of international oil prices.
refined oil price, or directly by the State Development and Reform Commission set
guests point of view: the new price adjustment mechanism to adjust the direction of change should be shorter, smaller amplitude. Estimates, But as long as international oil prices rise further, then the possibility of the introduction of the new mechanism would be small.
Oriental Morning Post: The parties have been concerned about the reform of refined oil pricing mechanism, or even news that the
storage section wang: new price adjustment mechanism to adjust the direction of change should be shorter, smaller amplitude. I guess the But as long as international oil prices rise further, then the possibility of the introduction of the new mechanism would be small.
Lin Boqiang: In the Because the primary in 2011 or the anti-inflationary tone. If the introduction of the new price adjustment mechanism, then certainly push up the CPI. Exactly when the introduction of new oil pricing mechanism, or see the future trend in international oil prices, and if a number of international oil prices fell off, then put on more easily.
Ding Shaoheng: how to change the terms, there is now more clear:
first cycle. Late last year, there argument is changed from 22 working days 10 working days, the program has been reported, the comparison should be identified, said.
The second is the price adjustment of the main, a former Development and Reform Commission proposed that the State Council, the final set. Now discuss the basic formation of two programs: one is still set by the government, but no final decision submitted by the State Council, but the National Development and Reform Commission will determine; second, several major oil group discussion, and then decided to transfer out of adjustment. These two programs are reported to the State Council, and above, or by a final decision about the way the transition is preferred to set directly by the State Development and Reform Commission, not by the State Council.
for reform, I have two suggestions: anchored species can change the oil. Now stare at these three, some of which trading volume, the output is not large, does not reflect the global level. The most obvious is not included in the WTI. I think the best included, because the U.S. economy is weak, but still able to lead oil prices.
The other is the formula, the original argument is that oil prices in 80 U.S. dollars / barrel, to guarantee a certain profit margin, and 80 U.S. dollars / barrel to 100 dollars / barrel to be gradually reduced profit margins. But this formula is introduced in late 2008, when the financial crisis began, oil prices roughly 30 U.S. dollars / barrel -40 U.S. dollars / barrel, corresponding to the formula that low oil prices is possible. Now oil prices return to normal levels, 80 dollars / barrel and above, if it is in accordance with the financial crisis, the economic background to be, will be the enthusiasm of domestic refinery production and generate pressure. If long-term oil price at 90 U.S. dollars / barrel and above, how do? So the future can be an appropriate formula to increase each interval.
time on the introduction of the new mechanism, I can not say. My assessment is that if oil prices stabilize at 80 U.S. dollars / barrel -90 U.S. dollar / barrel range, oil refining enterprises also decent, in order not to increase the domestic CPI, less likely to tune in the first half. However, if the first half of the price of oil has been maintained at 90 dollars / barrel and above, oil appears upside down, in order to ensure the stability of domestic supply is estimated to soon be a new pricing mechanism.
Oriental Morning Post: the introduction of new mechanisms of oil price reform will have three major oil prices and what impact?
Wang storage section: the impact of the three major oil firms profit, I personally feel a little advantage, but not too large. Because the new price adjustment mechanism is estimated on the basis of the original price to give a profit. Personally feel that the price of crude oil itself, oil prices a greater impact upstream exploration business, it is the main source of profits rather than oil refining business.
Lin Boqiang: three major oil firms must be good, because now the price adjustment has two characteristics, namely, lag, and second adjustment is not in place. Oil price trend is going up in the process, these two characteristics are certainly for the oil enterprises in terms of adverse factors. The new pricing mechanism will change the status of these two, the price adjustment will be more timely, the rates are more in place.
Ding Shaoheng: the impact of the three major oil prices, the current can be reduced to determine the price adjustment is good news. Such as adjustment of 4 times in 2010, which increased 1 3 down. Increase of about 10 days behind, the only one down day to day, stressed, and adjustment is not in place.
resources tax reform, the fastest in the second half across the country
Guest view: resource tax in the whole country should be faster. In the first half, if not the whole country, will promote the second half. Xinjiang has been tried since a long time, and energy conservation, resource protection countries attached great importance to effective, resource tax across the country are very effective and necessary.
Oriental Morning Post: that oil price adjustment mechanism, can not say another issue: the future of China for some time whether there is control of oil revenue through increased demand for energy?
storage section Wong: In the short term, reduction is not possible, to maintain the current level of possibility. From the long term, it is indeed possible tax increases, because of China's future will not encourage excessive consumption of energy, China hopes to reduce oil consumption.
Lin Boqiang: It should not. Crude oil prices have been the price of oil will increase, prices will naturally dampen consumer demand, which is enough. Now need to consider is that countries are afraid now when oil prices are not fixed transfer price adjustment, if adjusting the rate in place, would be sufficient. I fear that international oil prices on the 110 U.S. dollars / barrel, the 120 U.S. dollars / barrel, the state transfer is not fixed, that time is to consider a question of tax cuts. Before you look at oil prices of 90 dollars / barrel, the state is very hesitant, and almost can not move. So far, not to consider raising taxes inhibit the consumption of time.
Ding Shaoheng: This is necessary to add, but at least will not be reduced. Some researchers have found that heavy oil than foreign tax burden. Normal weight than abroad. Because the situation is different.
First, from the stage of economic development, China focused on the At this stage the benefits. Oil and gas prices now do not know-fold, a hundred years ago if we were still in accordance with the United States, South Korea decades ago to the kind of development model, is not enough, international resources are not enough, that is, taxes should be increased negative, in order to play the effect of saving resources.
Second, the gap between rich and poor country, driving most of the high income group, can be adjusted from the tax. Of collecting the tax and then used for agriculture, subsidies for poor areas.
Oriental Morning Post: The current resource tax reform pilot project in Xinjiang, you determine how long the future of this reform, what the scope of the promotion to other areas? If the spread in the country, which affect the performance of the three oil companies any different?
Wang storage section: It should be in the second half of 2011 or in the first half of 2012. Because Xinjiang is in the June 1, 2010 trial resource tax, and we often have more than one year national pilot time to full swing.
three major oil firms have a negative impact, but the effect will be larger in the oil, because oil domestic oil and gas resources in the relatively large proportion.
Lin Boqiang: In the whole country should be relatively fast. In the first half, if not the whole country, will extend the second half. Xinjiang has been tried since a long time, and energy conservation, resource protection countries attached great importance to effective, resource tax across the country are very effective and necessary. As for the magnitude of how much, I think the current practice in Xinjiang's still relatively small.
the impact of the three major oil firms must be negative, even though not much. Because state-controlled oil prices, so this part of the three major oil difficult to push up the cost to consumers over there. Sinopec, CNOOC was less affected. Domestic oil and gas resources in the high proportion of oil, so the greatest impact.
Ding Shaoheng: Only the beginning of Xinjiang, from the end of 2010 has been popularized in the 12 provinces. As for how long the future be extended to the country, it is difficult to answer.
As for the impact of short-term bearish, long-term good. Short-term refers to one or two years, when the tax increase, oil prices certainly affected profits, some experts estimate that 2% to 3%, this is not impossible. But in the long run, the purpose of resource taxation is to take part of the financial resources, retention areas, speed up the resources of the region's economic growth, promote their industrial upgrading. When income increases in these areas, the residents such as car ownership rises, which in turn will boost the local demand for refined oil. This three oil is a good thing.
international oil prices rose match for the pace of state purchasing and storage
Guest view: in the great efforts to build oil reserve base and strive to domestic crude oil reserves by 2020 to achieve a three-month reserve.
Oriental Morning Post: International oil prices rose, oil reserves will affect library purchasing and storage of Chinese progress?
storage section wang: crude oil reserves on the library building and purchasing and storage are not affected. Because the current crude oil reserves of our country was small, probably only half of the imports, while the United States is now able to reach at least 3 months. As far as I know, .
Lin Boqiang: It should not. We will draw on international crude oil prices last rose in 2008 lessons. As we wait and see, after reserves, leading to financial crisis, after a sharp decline in international oil prices low, we missed a golden opportunity to purchasing and storage. That we should be very sorry. The reserve for future construction of facilities will certainly continue to move forward, regardless of oil price is high or low. But the chance to see purchasing and storage, and now the price is acceptable, because the year approaching $ 150 a barrel, however. Now the psychological level is acceptable.
Ding Shaoheng: Will not. Because the fundamental purpose of purchasing and storage of emergency use. Such disasters, emergencies and so on. Economic interest is not in the first place.
dynamic look at oil prices are higher in the long term. The purchasing and storage of crude oil, is to periodically replacement. Taking into account the long-term oil prices, purchasing and storage of oil at any time are correct. Not to mention losses.
In addition, the domestic purchasing and storage of oil, many oil interests, is obtained from the overseas equity crude oil. There are also domestic oil production of oil, the price is not the international crude oil prices. This part of the join, you can flatten the cost of purchasing and storage of crude oil, thus reducing the impact of high oil prices on the purchasing and storage.
, of course, the short term, within a month or two, or to grasp, do predict the oil price. The right to find a good low intervention.
Oriental Morning Post: China, oil prices last year, investment in overseas oil and gas assets of more than 300 billion U.S. dollars, this unprecedented trend will continue to go out? Due to frequent in Africa, the Middle East and other politically unstable areas of shots, the three major oil enterprises Chinese companies often will reverse the acquisition of international oil and gas assets, pushing up the price?
Lin Boqiang: the strength to go out this year should be bigger than last year, and the future, too, as becomes increasingly dependent, so walking out is a last resort.
I want to say that the Chinese oil enterprises to go out, we not only should be noted that the upstream resources to go out, just take the oil, and now the three major oil enterprises should pay attention to the downstream assets in foreign countries also covered, which could be a future trend, which is a whole, to go out. Because of China's three major oil companies is the world's 500 is determined, they are bound to have a global Fortune 500 look. Then the world's top 500 oil prices will do? These three oil abroad to do in the future, may be present Shell, BP in China do the same.
In addition, China's current stage of economic growth by urbanization, industrialization driven. And this phase is estimated to be basically completed after 2020, this period had produced a large number of production after that point may be a surplus. In this sense, the three major oil enterprises to go out now, not just to buy oil, but also buy a refinery, is a very significant strategic turning point. Not only oil prices, you see, now the national grid in a foreign country to buy the grid. After opening the oil refineries in a foreign country, gas stations, which would be more common.
about to risk in some areas there may be no way to do this. Good place for a long splitting. Then the rest of these not so nice not to have no place to go. Political risk, business risk is obvious, but no way, have to take this risk.
on the last question, I think that would be affected, but not significantly increased. Such as the 300 billion U.S. dollars last year, but the 300 billion U.S. dollars in the international crude oil market is really not a big number. But whether it will bring some upward pressure? Certainly. Purchase because of competition, it will certainly raise prices.
Ding Shaoheng: go out, it is in response to international and domestic oil and supply risks.
Why unstable region, because these areas are often in developing countries, their economy is relatively backward, behind oil production technology, this enables us to better access to their markets and obtain oil and gas resources . Political stability in the region has basically been controlled by large international oil companies, the three major oil enterprises of our country started late, not those who enter the stable region. So now the policy of our country is in need to help these economic regions.
in risk aversion, the important way to our nation's oil companies or investing in these countries, or to help them from the economic development, access to resources at the same time bring them tangible benefits. In addition we also maintain a politically independent, not to those countries involved in partisan politics stand in or into. In addition, often in the oil field investment, open wells, we also want to big oil companies and international joint development, joint investment to form a community of interest. Prevent the United States, or Europe to impose sanctions on these oil producing countries to reduce investment risk.
impact on oil prices do not particularly worried. Overseas tenders, if several major groups have emerged, it is certain that this is often not particularly large projects, not generous. If the big-budget, the state will intervene coordination. Several other large oil enterprises to go out is to reduce the risk of fluctuations in international oil prices, in order to reduce gas costs, so it will not result in pushing up the price of oil and gas resources.
storage section wang: This investment should also continue. China's dependence on foreign oil because more than half. Rights to buy oil and gas fields better than buying stock. With the continuous development of China's economy, the increase in interest in overseas oil fields will provide a reliable energy supply security.
The three major oil firms collectively go out and push up prices in the affirmative. Furthermore, the economic recovery, oil asset values began to rise, so is normal. The current price I think it is within the acceptable range.
three oil overseas is certainly not And not only among Chinese enterprises, Chinese enterprises and Indian oil companies will also coordinate, as in India and less than oil and gas resources, and rising energy demand in developing countries in both periods, driven by common interests, in the ink prices will go cooperation.
chemical industry: or enter a new boom cycle
Guest viewpoint: the future of the chemical industry production capacity is an important factor in the profit. As domestic in 2011, almost 2012 million tons of new levels of refinery projects or other ethylene project goes into operation megaton, so long as there are no major fluctuations in demand, petrochemical industry will enter a new boom cycle.
Oriental Morning Post: We are very concerned about the arrival of the face of high oil prices, lower corporate profits are squeezed? Rising oil prices on the domestic chemical industry cost impact be?
storage section Wang: As long as the slow long-term oil prices rise, downstream business is not affected, they can be achieved through a long period of technical improvements or to lower switching costs to absorb the pressure of rising crude oil. From the perspective of historical trends, there have been early oil 1 USD / barrel -2 U.S. dollar / barrel stage, but has now reached 90 U.S. dollars / barrel and above, but the downstream survival of the enterprise is still very good.
oil prices will increase the cost of downstream firms, but as long as 80-100 dollars, chemical companies can absorb this increase in out of the increase, and transferred to the consumer.
Lin Boqiang: there will certainly be squeezed. Upstream cost increases, unless the transfer to consumers in a timely manner, it is impossible not affected. But to go directly transmitted to the terminal is not easy, because of China's many prices, especially energy products are subject to government control of the. Especially when inflation is relatively large, it is not easy.
addition to refining and chemical industries are also affected. Operating rates are now good, substantial excess impossible. And is currently refining profits also OK, not everyone thought was so bad, thanks to a complete mess, but it will not be good to go.
Zhang Jingming: It is now 90 dollar / barrel oil prices and the previous 90 U.S. dollars / barrel of oil is not the same as the yuan has appreciated, the international crude oil in U.S. dollar terms, this means that the domestic strong purchasing power of the enterprise. So when you look at international oil prices, now you can see the corresponding points higher.
general, when the international crude oil price at 70 dollars / barrel to 90 U.S. dollars / barrel is between, on the upstream and downstream petrochemical industry is beneficial, in which case a more balanced upper and lower income .
before the speculation that the lower international oil prices, the downstream business, the better, actually not the case. The level of oil prices can be seen as an indicator of economic operating conditions, to the past few years, when oil prices are only 30 dollars / barrel -40 U.S. dollars / barrel, the economy is more depressed, such as the global financial crisis, although the downstream business of share low cost of oil, but this time is weak market demand, production capacity reduced, start low, go on the total income.
since last year, as global economic recovery, higher oil prices, upstream and downstream businesses performed well. Although the recent rise in international oil prices, but the futures price, the general impact on downstream enterprises must have a 1-2 month lag time.
future oil prices, but at high levels of the chemical industry really is stressful. On the other hand, the future release of new capacity, is also an important factor affecting profit. The first two years, the release of chemical enterprises with production capacity more in a year 2-3 or even 3-4 new production projects, and is concentrated in a few months released. This will impact the price of chemical products is considerable. And as far as we now know, China in 2011, almost 2012 million tons of new oil refining project level or another megaton ethylene project goes into operation. Even if there are just some transformation or expansion of, and size. In foreign countries, especially in the Middle East, although the next two years but not more. Assuming the economy continues to operate the current situation, there are no major fluctuations in demand, new capacity limited in the case of the petrochemical industry will enter a new boom cycle.
plastic or fiber, as do the chemical companies, when the international crude oil prices low, prices can be transferred to the downstream pressure of rising costs, this is the so-called Price from more than 30 U.S. dollars / barrel slowly rose to 90 U.S. dollars / barrel, push the price is relatively easy, but to note that rose to 90 U.S. dollars / barrel and above, the cost to transfer the pressure to be very difficult.
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