Or re-adjust the air volume text / Chen sincerely
(contents Introduction: are after the real estate market adjustment as the legacy issues have not been effectively resolved, precisely because the government ignored the will of consumers insisted on too much emphasis on administrative intervention, therefore,Discount UGG boots, the real estate return adjustment, then may continue to deepen the adjustment, and speed may be faster, deeper extent possible, the time may be longer, including antagonism of consumers watch and even abandon the mentality of purchase may be more difficult to eliminate, the consumer may return to the market's enthusiasm more difficult to arouse. In this case, may find it difficult to get out of real estate has been extended by the government to rescue the market cycle adjustment channel. In some cities, does not rule out the possibility of housing a new crisis ... this article by personal point of view, only for reference, does not constitute any person or any body corporate to make any decisions based on the text does not constitute a person or body mentioned in the evaluation.)
first-tier cities such as regression adjustment indicates there stagflation precursor
According to Guangzhou and other places of commercial housing turnover shrinking both. Data: 7 months ago on the 26th, the Shanghai commercial housing a total of 1.62 million square meters of transactions, the chain fell 6%. Beijing Commercial Buildings (Forward House + existing homes) were signed and 13 513 units, 164 million square meters, the chain dropped about 10% and 4%. 7 months ago on the 25th, Guangzhou signed a total of 4573 residential units of goods, and in June than the same period in 9608 fell over half rings. This stagflation, could signal the arrival of periodic adjustment.
According to the Among them, 870 sets of Shenzhen Yi Shoufang market transactions, 36.97% of chain drop the top, down 15.59% Chengdu ranked second.
China Securities Journal reported that due to increasing supply, especially in the anti-Residential sales fell 2.3% average price chain. According to Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network data as of July 26, July Beijing Commodity Housing Being Built in daily contract volume reached 347 sets, below June's average daily contract quantity of 385 units, also lower than in May's Day 371 sets were contracted amount.
again, Center of six districts in particular, first-hand residential average price reached 12,354 yuan / square meter. However, while housing prices, trading volume is in decline. Guangzhou property prices plunged 5 percent in July contract, prices exceeded 2007 peak. 1 to 25 July, 4573 in Guangzhou city has contracted residential units, 183 residential units daily contract, compared with June, down over half. The entire June, Guangzhou commercial housing turnover, decreased by 16%. June 1 to 25, 9608 in Guangzhou city of residential transactions sets, 384 sets of daily contract. According to the current transaction trends, expected in July, Guangzhou Yi Shoufang full month contract does not exceed 6,000, more than in June fell more than 4 percent. Guangzhou Land Resources and Housing Authority official website of the data, as of July 27, Guangzhou online new home a total of 5070 sets of contract, and in June over the same period has fallen by 49%.
this view, since the June house prices began to have some universal truth rising since the line in order to predominantly urban real estate market, the recent signs indicate a sign of regression adjustment.
house prices, policy changes and other factors leading to the transaction is expected to decline
market-based practical point of view, housing prices rose too fast to squeeze out some buyers, real estate investment policy change is expected to lead to return expected to change,UGG boots, some owner-occupied purchase need to be effective policies to stimulate demand for lead follow-up prematurely 释放 insufficient effective demand, the decline was led to real estate Chengjiao to promote the general trend of housing Shi major factor in the callback.
in policy, not only in macroeconomic policy, monetary policy, reveal fine-tune the signal, some local governments have begun to introduce new local policies to try to stabilize prices. For example, in order to combat protected disk reluctant sellers, the Shanghai Municipal Government reiterated goods for sale each residential area of not less than 30,000 square meters and so on. Provisions of the Shenzhen Municipal Government, developers to get pre-sale permit must, within 10 days after the seller, violations will face is Beijing Municipal Government announced the New Deal, from August 1 onwards, the pre-sale, sales of commodity houses, the developer must place a prominent position in the sales by selling the real estate marketing publicity control information table, the average price of sold flats to be sold and not opening Loudong the proposed opening time. Where the New Deal, to a certain extent, affected the market mentality, in forcing developers to speed up the supply of real estate listing market, while increasing, house prices are again part of the purchase demand of consumers out of lead to effective demand reduction, and because inflation expectations and the market purchase of investment against inflation, housing demand is limited, therefore, makes the decline in real estate turnover.
land prices, inflation expectations could lead to house prices continue to rise
since last November since the series of bailout policies of the government stimulus, and some real estate bargains, led by some of the city commercial housing turnover rising to a certain extent, the real estate situation has gradually changed some.
burning money as the government adopted a strategy to stimulate economic growth, rapid and massive growth of credit, many credit funds into the housing and stock markets, the Nuggets gave birth to the real estate market bubble.
Similarly, because of moderately loose monetary policy has actually become overly loose monetary policy, market awash with liquidity, some of the real economy is still in deflation, consumer, while domestic demand remained sluggish in the consumer goods market , the real estate market areas, inflation expectations began to rise.
new credit in the first quarter reached 4.58 trillion yuan, four, in May of new credit scale there has been a big drop, and by June, increase market access to credit information after further large-scale , then rising inflation expectations. In the high inflation expectations under the influence of such factors, in June house prices began to rise authenticity. But at the same time, Guangzhou and other cities line appeared relatively large volume decrease. Entered in July, in particular, financial data released in June after the new credit market based on in June totaled 1.53 trillion yuan in the first half of the new loans of RMB 7.37 trillion yuan and other factors to judge, inflation is expected to further rise. The author analyzes Chen sincerely believe that inflation expectations in this situation, in July, house prices further up first-tier cities, some half a beat slower than the first-tier cities in the second tier cities, housing prices have started rising authenticity.
Now,UGG shoes, in some areas, the land market hot again, And, because inflation expectations continue to rise, the current low interest rates, low capital cost, even if 110% of the benchmark rate is still worthwhile to pay the interest on the loan, it may encourage more investment capacity and investment desire of the investment options house buyers who have the market. Therefore, if the Government still adhere to the inflation to boost consumer spending to stimulate economic growth, inflation, the idea that if the government can not take timely measures such as raising interest rates to combat inflation, then, house prices may continue to rise.
stagflation means that a new crisis
objectively speaking, in some areas, the current high prices have had on the price-sensitive consumer-occupied form of pressure will make Many consumer demand suppressed. On the other hand, not out of the adjustment of the current real estate cycle, high prices and other factors, they may make some investors fear the market prices fall again and give up. The author analyzes Chen sincerely believe that this point of view, the future of the real estate market may continue higher in price, trading volume may decline further.
market experience shows that lack of real estate transaction, often watching the market and may even be in a depression of the signal. When the volume down after a certain time to accumulate and reach a certain magnitude, breadth, the property may be periodically adjusted return in the near future,UGG boots, the idea is to make the government a headache, the market awkward stage stagflation.
that stagflation, as if the same macro-economic stagnation in fact, means that real estate may be a new crisis.
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